The Dark Knight Rises vs. The Avengers

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Last year, everyone would have told you The Dark Knight Rises was going to be the must-see movie of the year and the highest grossing as well. It has a lot to live up to, but Nolan is a trustworthy director who has yet to disappoint his audience. The Dark Knight was one of the most hyped movies of all time when it was released and until the final Harry Potter film came out last year, it held the top spot on the opening weekend chart. As everyone knows, The Avengers abolished both opening weekend amounts, besting Harry Potter’s by nearly $40 million.

So how was The Avengers able to overcome even the most generous estimates and perform so well at the box office? Aside from being the biggest blockbuster of all time, combining four Marvel franchises into one movie, Marvel initiated a marketing campaign that probably had a budget equal to that of the entire film’s production. They released countless TV spots and clips, and as many people joked, you could have combined all the released footage and watched the entire film at home. Regardless, people still showed up and are still showing up to watch the film in theaters.

Another reason for the popularity is the positive word-of-mouth and the excellent critic reviews (93% by critics on Rotten Tomatoes and 96% by users). The Avengers is worthy of multiple viewings and I’m sure there are enough fans who’ve gone back repeatedly to relive the adventure. It’s finally quieting down a bit and will probably finish slightly below Titanic on the all-time worldwide list.

The Dark Knight Rises (TDKR) was projected to be the highest grossing film of the year up until a few weeks ago. There’s no doubt it’ll perform well at the box office, but there is little chance it will be able to match the accomplishments of The Avengers. The obvious differentiator is lack of 3D, as TDKR will be released only in 2D, unlike The Avengers. 3D ticket prices are typically 20-30% higher, which is a big boost for a film that has earned over $1 billion worldwide. That isn’t taking into account the apparent international craze over 3D that has helped generate greater revenues for the Marvel blockbuster.

After Batman Begins earned a modest $370 worldwide at the box office, The Dark Knight (TDK) came out with a bang and became the first superhero movie to earn $1 billion, even though it struggled to do so. International grosses are a large part of a film’s success, but unlike the other billion dollar films, TDK earned more domestically than it did overseas. I don’t see this being the case with TDKR as Batman and Nolan have grown in popularity since TDK’s release (Nolan’s latest film “Inception” was an international hit, earning over $500 million), and positive word-of-mouth should help TDKR to succeed on a greater level than TDK did internationally. TDKR will no doubt break the opening weekend record of its predecessor, but it may struggle to finish on top domestically, as it doesn’t have the Heath Ledger factor which helped generate incredible buzz for TDK.

TDKR will easily cross $1 billion, and could earn as much as $1.5 billion depending on its success overseas. Domestically, it’ll no doubt cross $450 million and come close to the final tally of TDK. One thing that may help propel TDKR to near $1 billion internationally is the success of The Avengers. Now that international audiences are more accepting of superhero films, it may help TDKR generate a larger audience than it would have originally. Also helping this installment of the Batman franchise is the fact that it is Nolan’s final Batman film (with the tagline “The Legend Ends”) and people will probably rush to see it even if they haven’t seen the two prequels.

I still consider TDK to be the greatest superhero/comic book film of all time. Even though The Avengers is now the highest grossing superhero film of all time, that doesn’t mean it is the best. TDKR has potential and it is directed by one the best current Hollywood directors. It may not succeed as well as The Avengers did financially, but don’t expect it to be any worse in terms of quality.