Injuries and The Heat Contender Profile

Tweet Much apologies about the delay but as always exam season usually wins over almost anything else in life. Before breaking down the Miami Heat and their title chances (hint: they are really really good) I will quickly tangent to talk about a storyline that has gained significant steam over the last few months, that storyline is the one of injuries.

One Bright side to the injury? Less outfits like this.

Earlier today a lot of people may have been disappointed to hear that Russell Westbrook could miss the playoffs after having surgery on his meniscus. Now, my hate for the Thunder is not hidden but even I feel bad for them. I still remember when Chris Webber went down in a heap in a year that Sacramento would almost assuredly have won the title (2003) and it sucks, it really does. You only get so many chances to win a title and Oklahoma City just lost one of them. Having said that, a lot of other teams are dealing with injuries; Rose, Bryant, Gallo, Nash, Ginobili, Lee, Rondo, Chandler, Granger, to name a few that could put a serious dent into what little chances they had to win the title in the first place (This is not even mentioning guys like Kevin Love whose absence greatly affected the Wolves season). The playoffs would be far more intriguing if everyone was healthy, that almost goes without say but isn't it time to consider the big picture here? Just earlier this year Popovich infamously benched his best players for a nationally televised game against the Miami Heat, sighting that playing four games in five nights on the road was a strain he did not want to expose his players to (something that both he and the Spurs were fined heavily for by David Stern). Pop is also among the least shy coaches when it comes to resting players and preserving them over the long haul, more than happy to throw away a few regular season wins for the long-term health of his team. Looking at the Spurs now, Pops method looks like its paying off; the Spurs seem to be getting healthy as other teams around them are crumbling with Ginobili and Parker looking like they are getting back to their best.

Injuries have clearly thrown a massive wrench into the postseason and now at least five fan bases will be left wondering what could have been if they were fully healthy for the playoffs. At what point does the NBA step in and do something? Now I am not asking for anything dramatic to be done, but how about just letting teams rest their players during the regular season without fear of being fined? Or maybe shorten the regular season by 10 games? These athletes are exerting themselves on a nightly basis for over seven months for our entertainment and we are surprised when they do serious damage to their bodies? Hopefully the occurrence of key injuries this year will alert someone with authority to do something about this in the future, because for now we know that Stern will stand pat.

The Miami Heat

One team that has not been affected by injuries to the extend that others have also happens to be the team that is the odds on favorite to win the title, the Heat. There really isn't much to profile about these guys, they can play any style: big, small, fast, slow, 3-point shooting, defense, you name it they have it. At their disposal they have three players who could be franchise players on other teams working in a system that took Miami on an astonishing 27 game winning steak. The Heat have lost only 2 games since signing Chris Andersen (who would have thought huh?) and it would be a massive surprise if they did not win their second straight title this season. The only drama at this point seems to be whether or not they can match the 01' Lakers and their 15-1 romp through the 2001 playoffs. Future editions of contender profiles will focus on what has to go right for teams to beat Miami, who will in all likely hood sweep the Bucks this weekend.

Up next: The Knicks of New York

Profiling the NBA Contenders: Thunder

Tweet With less than a quarter of the regular season left, it seems like a perfect time to spend the next few weeks taking a closer look at the contenders for the NBA title. Our first look will be on the Thunder of Oklahoma City.

Overview

Currently, OKC (I hate that this is the only short form nickname for them, it adds to my heavy dislike of this team) sits second in the Western conference with an impressive record of 54-20 (as of this writing). They have an outside shot of catching the Spurs for the one-seed, and are led by the impressive tandem of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Last season, the Thunder made the NBA finals and are hoping to take that final step to win this year.

Key Players

If it wasn't for Lebron submitting one of the greatest seasons ever, Durant would be the run-away MVP, he is averaging 28.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game (all above his career averages) while shooting an astonishing 50% from the field, 40% from 3 and above 90% at the free-throw line. Durant has the ability to dominate playoff series, and take over in big moments, an absolute must for a team hoping to win a title. Although Durant is the best player on his team, his supporting cast is not too shabby. He is flanked by Russell Westbrook, a very dynamic and explosive player that you are not winning against if he is on his "A" game (more on this in a bit). In addition to Westbrook, the Thunder also have Serge Ibaka, one of the best interior defenders and athletes in the league along with Kevin Martin (a 20 ppg player on most other teams, but a role player on the Thunder. If Martin is your fourth best player, you are in good shape).

Strengths

Star power, a great home-court advantage, benefit of every borderline call, can protect leads, can adapt to play slow, fast, quick, or big, RussellWestbrook.

Weaknesses

Questionable coaching (especially when Scottie Brooks insisted on staying with Kendrick Perkins in the finals last year instead of starting James Harden and matching Miami's small-ball approach), poor late game execution; usually its just one guy going one-on-one and forcing a terrible shot (they get away with this because that guy is usually Kevin Durant), and Russell Westbrook.

You may have noticed that Russell Westbrook is featured as both a strength and a weakness. This is because if Westbrook brings that aforementioned "A" game, where he involves his teammates, is an absolute beast defensively, and does not force shots, the Thunder are unbeatable. However, for every "A" game Westbrook provides, he also provides games where he forces too much, shoots a long two with 22 seconds on the shot clock and blows possessions by not running the offense (not giving the ball to Durant) and looking for all the glory. Most often this results in one of those "how did we blow that game" games.

Key Question

How will the second unit and crunch time line-ups function without James Harden once the playoffs start?

Playoff Match-up Casual Fans Would Like To See Most

A duel with James Harden and the high-scoring Houston Rockets. Hands down.

 
Why They Will Win

Westbrook provides more "A" games than "F" games, a third (James harden would have been this) option emerges who relieves some of the burden of the offense that Durant and Westbrook provide, Derek Fisher hits some clutch shots.

Why They Will Lose

A third option does not emerge, Miami meets them in the finals, They get worn out from tough Western conference series, Scottie Brooks and Russell Westbrook blow winnable games with questionable decision making.

Next feature: Miami Heat

The Ghost of James Harden: Why OKC may ultimately regret trading an up-and coming star

Tweet Thoughts and prayers with the families of the tragic shooting in Connecticut, it is sad that not even children are safe from gun violence. Hopefully a serious re-examination of gun control initiatives will occur as a result of this terrible tragedy.

I decided to leave some time between the writing of this post and the actual trade in order to have a fair evaluation of the trades' outcome. By now, all NBA fans are well aware that James Harden now plays (and stars) for the Houston Rockets while Kevin Martin is filling in Harden's old role at Oklahoma City. One could make the case that both teams benefited from the trade. Houston once again has a legitimate NBA star (and a lock-in to be in the all-star game) in Harden, who is averaging career bests in points (25.0), assists (5.4), and rebounds (4.4). Now that he is no longer confined to a 6th man role, and does not have to share the ball with two other stars, we are able to see exactly why Rockets GM Daryl Morey pulled the trigger on this trade. Oklahoma city meanwhile, sits on top of the West and as of this writing, is working on a 9-game winning streak. They do not have to play with the distraction of Harden's contract situation, they can secure Ibaka long term, and Kevin Martin has proven to be at least an adequate fill-in for Harden.

Questions remain about their ability to perform in the playoffs (no way to answer how they will do until we actually see them in action) and their potential to take the next step and win the NBA title, but for now things are looking good. So, the answer to the question posed in the title of this post appears to be easy: Oklahoma will not regret the trade. But is it that simple? In the short-term they appear to be playing just as well as last year and their main threat (the "reloaded" Lakers) could not be in more disarray at the moment. However, we need to consider how they will play against the top teams in the league without Harden. Can they beat the Spurs in a playoff series without him? Harden was a key part of the reason that OKC managed to beat the best team in the league last year, so how do you think San Antonio felt when they learned about the trade? What about Memphis? The Grizzlies could not cope with Oklahoma having all three of Harden, Durant, and Westbrook in the game, but Memphis handled the new-look OKC with relative ease in their game earlier this year. What about the Clippers? Can OKC keep up with them without Harden's play-making ability? No disrespect to Kevin Martin, he is a good scorer and a definite threat, but he is not able to create plays for his teammates as well as Harden is. Again, only time will answer these questions, but if you ask any team in the NBA who they would rather have: Martin? or Harden? I think that almost all of them would take Harden.

It is for that reason that I believe that the long-term answer to the question this post asks appears to be that Oklahoma will, in fact, regret trading Harden. It is as simple as: they gave up the better player in the deal. NBA history is littered with examples of teams having regret over trading more talent for less talent. The ones that immediately come to mind are: the Lakers and Heat Shaq trade, The Toronto Vince Carter trade (the franchise is still recovering from that one) and the Pau Gasol trade, just to name a few. All of those trades either made title contenders out of average teams, or doomed the team that gave up talent to mediocrity. Oklahoma will not be mediocre because they have immense talent on their roster already, but the ceiling of the team's potential went from "potential dynasty" to "lucky to win one title". I think that this drop-off will surface during the playoffs this year (I am not expecting this team to make the finals again) where Oklahoma city will look way less dominant (12-3 in the West playoffs last year) and lose to a team that they would have beaten with Harden on the roster.

Enjoy your holidays! 

Conference Finals Could Determine the Future of the NBA

Tweet You may be wondering where the article I promised in my last edition of playoff awards (the one devoted to San Antonio) is. Simply put: it is on hold. The article is a celebration of how San Antonio has managed to embrace the 'team over the individual' concept (something fans of North American sports always crave and ask for, but hate it when they get it), Tim Duncan and his under-rated career, the brilliance of Popovich, and many other things that have defined the Spurs, but that have also been unappreciated for far too long. Kevin Durant and the Thunder of Oklahoma city do not want me to post that article.
Before you continue reading this, please note that I have nothing against the Thunder winning, I just think that future NBA seasons would be better if San Antonio or Boston capture the NBA title this year.

The ode to the Spurs was going to be my finals preview (obviously, they have to make the finals for this to happen), as well as a hopeful thought that the NBA would now move back to an era where teamwork and individual sacrifice would once again be crucial to success. Where watching beautifully executed plays and sequences that could only come from having an unquestioned trust in your teammates (think Ginobili behind-the-back to Tony Parker) would occur on a nightly basis. Where superstars would forego the chance to break a scoring record, in order to truly elevate their team mates, or as I like to call it: the anti-Kobe. And lastly, an era where you would not watch a guard pound the ball for 22 seconds and then launch an off-balance three with the shot clock expiring (and yes, that one is called a 'Westbrook').

The run that the Dallas Mavericks had last year wasn't just beautiful because they beat the NBA's resident villain, the Miami Heat, it was also beautiful in the way they did it. Jason Kidd did not just dribble up the court and pass it to Dirk Nowitzki; the Mavericks moved the ball (often all five players getting a touch)  looking for the best possible shot. If that shot happened to be a Nowitzki fade-away, then so be it, but the point is that Dallas played as a team and it was a big part of why they won. Another thing that contributed to the Mavs' success was that their role-players knew exactly what their roles were. Watching the thrilling Boston-Miami game last night and seeing Spolestra just throwing line-ups out there hoping that they would work (Norris Cole in after Lebron fouled out) reminded me of just how important role players (and coaching) can be. Rick Carlisle of Dallas made sure that players one through twelve on his roster were ready to play if they were needed. That is why Dallas had great moments in their title run such as Brewer changing the pace of game one against the Lakers, or J.J. Barea changing the complexion of the finals.

I guess that what I am trying to say is that it would be good for the NBA if the formula for winning titles went away from "let's build a super-team" to "let's maximize what we have and win that way". The Spurs and Celtics do not have much in common with a lot of teams in the league (teams such as the Lakers, Clippers, Pacers, Grizzlies etc.) they are not as athletic or as talented (at least in terms of their best players). Yet the Spurs and Celtics outlasted all of those teams and have a good chance to make it to the NBA finals, all because they set individual stats aside for the greater good, in this case winning a title. If the Heat or the Thunder win the title, then the Brooklyn Nets pursuit of teaming up Deron Williams with Dwight Howard (both guys had a hand in the firing/resignation of a coach recently) is justified. More and more stars will take the easy 'non-Duncan' way out and just team up instead of working hard. That is why I am rooting for a Spurs and Celtics finals, one that may not get the ratings of other match-ups, but one that could benefit the league in a way not seen since the early 80's.

The Millennium NBA preview

Tweet With the NBA serving up an incredible Christmas day slate doubling as the opening day we at Millennium could not be more excited. So without further ado here are some of our thoughts on the upcoming season. I will lead off.

Daki:

The thing I am most glad about is the fact that the NBA will keep the momentum from last year's wonderful season going. Last year was the first time in a long time that both the regular and post seasons truly mattered. We had a star breaking out in Derick Rose, we had a true villain (Lebron and the heat), and we had some major surprises (Pacers, Grizzlies). Best of all, we had a group of guys who all won the ring that had eluded them for their entire careers (Kidd, Peja, Marion, Dirk, Terry, Mark Cuban). This year the only thing we know for sure is that Miami and Lebron are still very much the villains but we have no idea what teams will surprise us, what teams will emerge as contenders, or which player will emerge as the next star. Finding out these unknowns is what excites me the most about this season, along with an exciting Kings roster that should be fun to watch its really all I could ask for. Luka and Igor will cover most of the major story lines so I will explain my picks for MVP, the champion and rookie of the year awards. ROY: Brandon Knight (just a hunch). MVP: Kobe Bryant (I will wait for you to stop laughing). Phil Jackson has said numerous times that Kobe knows how to achieve and embrace being the perfect team mate, but chooses not to due to the pursuit of selfish accolades such as scoring titles. I firmly believe that Kobe is aware of his declining abilities and as much as he wants to pass Kareem on the all-time scoring list, I think he cares about winning just a bit more. This season the Lakers are a really popular pick to be a disaster and the only thing that will prevent that is if Kobe finally chooses to play the right way (making team mates better, passing to open team mates for game winners, rebounding, taking smarter shots). If he does decide to play the right way, look for a slew of stories around February about how Kobe "finally gets it" as well as a few "Kobe may not be the best player anymore, but you can argue he has been the most valuable" (I fully expect someone like Skip Bayless to do this). If Kobe instead chooses to keep doing things the way he always has we can safely assume that he desires to pass Kareem (in points) rather than Jordan (in titles). As for my title pick, I am taking Chicago over Memphis in 6.

MVP: Kobe Bryant
ROY: Brandon Knight
Champion: Bulls (with Rose winning Finals MVP)

Igor:

It doesn’t seem real that the NBA season is actually going to start soon since I pretty much convinced myself that it wasn’t going to happen. There are a few key things that I’m really looking forward to watching this coming season.

In the East the biggest story will be whether the Heat can “redeem” themselves from losing in the finals after everyone (including themselves) considered them the champions before the season started. One year of chemistry building between the big 3 (or 2.5) is crucial and I doubt that they will start the season off 9-8 like last year. The only problem is that they haven’t really added many pieces other than Battier, but he does not fix their lack of a center and point guard. Regardless they are still the favourites to come out on top of the East. The Knicks will be very fun to watch this year and could give the Heat some problems during the season. The additions of Chandler and Davis (once he heals) are important for their improvement from last year. As a Bulls fan, I’m interested in seeing how much Hamilton will help the team out and if Boozer can put together a solid year. Rose should maintain his great performance from his MVP year and with offensive help from Boozer and Hamilton, the Bulls look like a team that will go deep in the playoffs. After giving the Bulls a run for their money in the first round last year, Indiana should be the dark horse of the East especially after the addition of West. As crap as I think the Raptors will be this year, I will be closely watching Casey’s coaching and hoping to see some improvement on defense (already seen some glimpses of it during pre-season). Also keep an eye out for my friend Jan Vesely on the Wizards. Playing with John Wall will only be beneficial to his career.

The West is loaded with great teams and it will get very competitive down the stretch of the season. Here are a few questions to think about this season. Is there a new best team in L.A.? Will Rubio live up to the hype? Can Portland put it together after losing Roy? Will Memphis come out as a top 3 team in the West? Can the Mavs maintain their championship form? Most teams are interesting in the West, but my two favourite teams are the Warriors and the Thunder. Despite the Warriors’ struggles in the past few years, they are my favourite team to watch in all of sports due to their unpredictability and high pace. They can beat the best teams and lose to the worst teams on any given night. This is the year that Mark Jackson steps into the head coaching position and shows the league how to play “hand down man down” defense. Jokes aside I think he will be great for Ellis and Curry (since he was a great point guard during his career) who are probably the most talented backcourt in the NBA. If you’re bored at 10:30 any night you can’t go wrong with watching a Warriors game. With the addition of Perkins, improvement of Ibaka and Harden, and Durant and Westbrook entering their primes, this is the year of the Thunder. They have it all from lockdown defense to great offense and will be at the top of the NBA. Watch for them to storm through the West and win it all.

MVP: Durant                  

ROY: Kemba Walker

Finals: Bulls vs. Thunder

Winner: Thunder in 6 (Durant finals MVP)

Luka:

The NBA will finally make its long-awaited return tomorrow with 5 great games. During the lockout I always thought that the season would be cancelled since both sides seemed like they did not care about losing a season. It made me think that I would not care as much about the upcoming season. And yet, when the season was announced I immediately forgot about the whole lockout, and even stranger was the fact that I did not care. All I wanted to do was watch. It felt as if David Stern and Billy Hunter did their best men in black impression on me and the rest of the NBA's fans. And now with the opening less then 24 hours away there are a countless number of things in my head that I cant wait to see how they will play out.

Here are some of my thoughts/questions/things to look forward to about the upcoming NBA season (some of these are jokes).

The Dallas Mavericks trying to win back-to-back titles without their 2nd and 6th best players from last years run. The Heat being the only great team with seemingly no other teams at their level at this point. Hating the Miami Heat again. Watching Lebron's headband increase in size as the season progresses. People realizing that Shane Battier is old. Vince Carter and Tracy Mcgrady trying to out-suck each other in Dallas and Atlanta respectively (my money is on T-mac because I think he died 2 years ago). The Raptors being absolutely awful. Relictantly watching every Raptors game in the hope that they are not absolutely awful. My grades dropping because each team plays 66 games in 120 days!!! Kobe buying Vanessa a 4-million dollar ring for each women he cheated on her with. Kobe going bankrupt in 3 days. Baron Davis' rejuvination in New York. Brian "the custodian" Cardinal. Wondering how Calderon is making 10 million dollars this year. The Durant/Westbrook relationship. The Phil Jackson to the Knicks rumours that wont stop. Dwight Howard trade talks. The battle for L.A. The Indiana Pacers being a sneaky-good basketball team. Whether or not Memphis will be able to surprise people again (I think yes). Will anyone watch a Bobcats game? (Only if MJ suits up). Shaq recording a "tell me how my ass tastes" remix with Vanessa Bryant, Karl Malone, and Ruben Patterson. The Celtics relying on Keyon Dooling. Gregg Popovich ruining fantasy leagues everywhere by resting Parker, Duncan, and Manu more then people think he will. Lastly, seeing if this season can top last season.

Champion: Heat over Mavs in 6 

MVP: Carmelo Anthony

ROY: Kemba Walker