I decided to leave some time between the writing of this post and the actual trade in order to have a fair evaluation of the trades' outcome. By now, all NBA fans are well aware that James Harden now plays (and stars) for the Houston Rockets while Kevin Martin is filling in Harden's old role at Oklahoma City. One could make the case that both teams benefited from the trade. Houston once again has a legitimate NBA star (and a lock-in to be in the all-star game) in Harden, who is averaging career bests in points (25.0), assists (5.4), and rebounds (4.4). Now that he is no longer confined to a 6th man role, and does not have to share the ball with two other stars, we are able to see exactly why Rockets GM Daryl Morey pulled the trigger on this trade. Oklahoma city meanwhile, sits on top of the West and as of this writing, is working on a 9-game winning streak. They do not have to play with the distraction of Harden's contract situation, they can secure Ibaka long term, and Kevin Martin has proven to be at least an adequate fill-in for Harden.
Questions remain about their ability to perform in the playoffs (no way to answer how they will do until we actually see them in action) and their potential to take the next step and win the NBA title, but for now things are looking good. So, the answer to the question posed in the title of this post appears to be easy: Oklahoma will not regret the trade. But is it that simple? In the short-term they appear to be playing just as well as last year and their main threat (the "reloaded" Lakers) could not be in more disarray at the moment. However, we need to consider how they will play against the top teams in the league without Harden. Can they beat the Spurs in a playoff series without him? Harden was a key part of the reason that OKC managed to beat the best team in the league last year, so how do you think San Antonio felt when they learned about the trade? What about Memphis? The Grizzlies could not cope with Oklahoma having all three of Harden, Durant, and Westbrook in the game, but Memphis handled the new-look OKC with relative ease in their game earlier this year. What about the Clippers? Can OKC keep up with them without Harden's play-making ability? No disrespect to Kevin Martin, he is a good scorer and a definite threat, but he is not able to create plays for his teammates as well as Harden is. Again, only time will answer these questions, but if you ask any team in the NBA who they would rather have: Martin? or Harden? I think that almost all of them would take Harden.
It is for that reason that I believe that the long-term answer to the question this post asks appears to be that Oklahoma will, in fact, regret trading Harden. It is as simple as: they gave up the better player in the deal. NBA history is littered with examples of teams having regret over trading more talent for less talent. The ones that immediately come to mind are: the Lakers and Heat Shaq trade, The Toronto Vince Carter trade (the franchise is still recovering from that one) and the Pau Gasol trade, just to name a few. All of those trades either made title contenders out of average teams, or doomed the team that gave up talent to mediocrity. Oklahoma will not be mediocre because they have immense talent on their roster already, but the ceiling of the team's potential went from "potential dynasty" to "lucky to win one title". I think that this drop-off will surface during the playoffs this year (I am not expecting this team to make the finals again) where Oklahoma city will look way less dominant (12-3 in the West playoffs last year) and lose to a team that they would have beaten with Harden on the roster.
Enjoy your holidays!
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