Injuries and The Heat Contender Profile

Tweet Much apologies about the delay but as always exam season usually wins over almost anything else in life. Before breaking down the Miami Heat and their title chances (hint: they are really really good) I will quickly tangent to talk about a storyline that has gained significant steam over the last few months, that storyline is the one of injuries.

One Bright side to the injury? Less outfits like this.

Earlier today a lot of people may have been disappointed to hear that Russell Westbrook could miss the playoffs after having surgery on his meniscus. Now, my hate for the Thunder is not hidden but even I feel bad for them. I still remember when Chris Webber went down in a heap in a year that Sacramento would almost assuredly have won the title (2003) and it sucks, it really does. You only get so many chances to win a title and Oklahoma City just lost one of them. Having said that, a lot of other teams are dealing with injuries; Rose, Bryant, Gallo, Nash, Ginobili, Lee, Rondo, Chandler, Granger, to name a few that could put a serious dent into what little chances they had to win the title in the first place (This is not even mentioning guys like Kevin Love whose absence greatly affected the Wolves season). The playoffs would be far more intriguing if everyone was healthy, that almost goes without say but isn't it time to consider the big picture here? Just earlier this year Popovich infamously benched his best players for a nationally televised game against the Miami Heat, sighting that playing four games in five nights on the road was a strain he did not want to expose his players to (something that both he and the Spurs were fined heavily for by David Stern). Pop is also among the least shy coaches when it comes to resting players and preserving them over the long haul, more than happy to throw away a few regular season wins for the long-term health of his team. Looking at the Spurs now, Pops method looks like its paying off; the Spurs seem to be getting healthy as other teams around them are crumbling with Ginobili and Parker looking like they are getting back to their best.

Injuries have clearly thrown a massive wrench into the postseason and now at least five fan bases will be left wondering what could have been if they were fully healthy for the playoffs. At what point does the NBA step in and do something? Now I am not asking for anything dramatic to be done, but how about just letting teams rest their players during the regular season without fear of being fined? Or maybe shorten the regular season by 10 games? These athletes are exerting themselves on a nightly basis for over seven months for our entertainment and we are surprised when they do serious damage to their bodies? Hopefully the occurrence of key injuries this year will alert someone with authority to do something about this in the future, because for now we know that Stern will stand pat.

The Miami Heat

One team that has not been affected by injuries to the extend that others have also happens to be the team that is the odds on favorite to win the title, the Heat. There really isn't much to profile about these guys, they can play any style: big, small, fast, slow, 3-point shooting, defense, you name it they have it. At their disposal they have three players who could be franchise players on other teams working in a system that took Miami on an astonishing 27 game winning steak. The Heat have lost only 2 games since signing Chris Andersen (who would have thought huh?) and it would be a massive surprise if they did not win their second straight title this season. The only drama at this point seems to be whether or not they can match the 01' Lakers and their 15-1 romp through the 2001 playoffs. Future editions of contender profiles will focus on what has to go right for teams to beat Miami, who will in all likely hood sweep the Bucks this weekend.

Up next: The Knicks of New York

Profiling the NBA Contenders: Thunder

Tweet With less than a quarter of the regular season left, it seems like a perfect time to spend the next few weeks taking a closer look at the contenders for the NBA title. Our first look will be on the Thunder of Oklahoma City.

Overview

Currently, OKC (I hate that this is the only short form nickname for them, it adds to my heavy dislike of this team) sits second in the Western conference with an impressive record of 54-20 (as of this writing). They have an outside shot of catching the Spurs for the one-seed, and are led by the impressive tandem of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Last season, the Thunder made the NBA finals and are hoping to take that final step to win this year.

Key Players

If it wasn't for Lebron submitting one of the greatest seasons ever, Durant would be the run-away MVP, he is averaging 28.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game (all above his career averages) while shooting an astonishing 50% from the field, 40% from 3 and above 90% at the free-throw line. Durant has the ability to dominate playoff series, and take over in big moments, an absolute must for a team hoping to win a title. Although Durant is the best player on his team, his supporting cast is not too shabby. He is flanked by Russell Westbrook, a very dynamic and explosive player that you are not winning against if he is on his "A" game (more on this in a bit). In addition to Westbrook, the Thunder also have Serge Ibaka, one of the best interior defenders and athletes in the league along with Kevin Martin (a 20 ppg player on most other teams, but a role player on the Thunder. If Martin is your fourth best player, you are in good shape).

Strengths

Star power, a great home-court advantage, benefit of every borderline call, can protect leads, can adapt to play slow, fast, quick, or big, RussellWestbrook.

Weaknesses

Questionable coaching (especially when Scottie Brooks insisted on staying with Kendrick Perkins in the finals last year instead of starting James Harden and matching Miami's small-ball approach), poor late game execution; usually its just one guy going one-on-one and forcing a terrible shot (they get away with this because that guy is usually Kevin Durant), and Russell Westbrook.

You may have noticed that Russell Westbrook is featured as both a strength and a weakness. This is because if Westbrook brings that aforementioned "A" game, where he involves his teammates, is an absolute beast defensively, and does not force shots, the Thunder are unbeatable. However, for every "A" game Westbrook provides, he also provides games where he forces too much, shoots a long two with 22 seconds on the shot clock and blows possessions by not running the offense (not giving the ball to Durant) and looking for all the glory. Most often this results in one of those "how did we blow that game" games.

Key Question

How will the second unit and crunch time line-ups function without James Harden once the playoffs start?

Playoff Match-up Casual Fans Would Like To See Most

A duel with James Harden and the high-scoring Houston Rockets. Hands down.

 
Why They Will Win

Westbrook provides more "A" games than "F" games, a third (James harden would have been this) option emerges who relieves some of the burden of the offense that Durant and Westbrook provide, Derek Fisher hits some clutch shots.

Why They Will Lose

A third option does not emerge, Miami meets them in the finals, They get worn out from tough Western conference series, Scottie Brooks and Russell Westbrook blow winnable games with questionable decision making.

Next feature: Miami Heat

Conference Finals Could Determine the Future of the NBA

Tweet You may be wondering where the article I promised in my last edition of playoff awards (the one devoted to San Antonio) is. Simply put: it is on hold. The article is a celebration of how San Antonio has managed to embrace the 'team over the individual' concept (something fans of North American sports always crave and ask for, but hate it when they get it), Tim Duncan and his under-rated career, the brilliance of Popovich, and many other things that have defined the Spurs, but that have also been unappreciated for far too long. Kevin Durant and the Thunder of Oklahoma city do not want me to post that article.
Before you continue reading this, please note that I have nothing against the Thunder winning, I just think that future NBA seasons would be better if San Antonio or Boston capture the NBA title this year.

The ode to the Spurs was going to be my finals preview (obviously, they have to make the finals for this to happen), as well as a hopeful thought that the NBA would now move back to an era where teamwork and individual sacrifice would once again be crucial to success. Where watching beautifully executed plays and sequences that could only come from having an unquestioned trust in your teammates (think Ginobili behind-the-back to Tony Parker) would occur on a nightly basis. Where superstars would forego the chance to break a scoring record, in order to truly elevate their team mates, or as I like to call it: the anti-Kobe. And lastly, an era where you would not watch a guard pound the ball for 22 seconds and then launch an off-balance three with the shot clock expiring (and yes, that one is called a 'Westbrook').

The run that the Dallas Mavericks had last year wasn't just beautiful because they beat the NBA's resident villain, the Miami Heat, it was also beautiful in the way they did it. Jason Kidd did not just dribble up the court and pass it to Dirk Nowitzki; the Mavericks moved the ball (often all five players getting a touch)  looking for the best possible shot. If that shot happened to be a Nowitzki fade-away, then so be it, but the point is that Dallas played as a team and it was a big part of why they won. Another thing that contributed to the Mavs' success was that their role-players knew exactly what their roles were. Watching the thrilling Boston-Miami game last night and seeing Spolestra just throwing line-ups out there hoping that they would work (Norris Cole in after Lebron fouled out) reminded me of just how important role players (and coaching) can be. Rick Carlisle of Dallas made sure that players one through twelve on his roster were ready to play if they were needed. That is why Dallas had great moments in their title run such as Brewer changing the pace of game one against the Lakers, or J.J. Barea changing the complexion of the finals.

I guess that what I am trying to say is that it would be good for the NBA if the formula for winning titles went away from "let's build a super-team" to "let's maximize what we have and win that way". The Spurs and Celtics do not have much in common with a lot of teams in the league (teams such as the Lakers, Clippers, Pacers, Grizzlies etc.) they are not as athletic or as talented (at least in terms of their best players). Yet the Spurs and Celtics outlasted all of those teams and have a good chance to make it to the NBA finals, all because they set individual stats aside for the greater good, in this case winning a title. If the Heat or the Thunder win the title, then the Brooklyn Nets pursuit of teaming up Deron Williams with Dwight Howard (both guys had a hand in the firing/resignation of a coach recently) is justified. More and more stars will take the easy 'non-Duncan' way out and just team up instead of working hard. That is why I am rooting for a Spurs and Celtics finals, one that may not get the ratings of other match-ups, but one that could benefit the league in a way not seen since the early 80's.

A Look at the Week That Was in the NBA

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Which teams are making noise?

With only four weeks to go in the NBA's regular season, now is the time where teams need to make their move and peak at the right time (which everyone seems to agree is right before the playoffs). The team that did that in a resounding way last week were the Thunder of Oklahoma city. OKC is currently riding a 6-game winning streak in which they went 3-0 against other title contenders (The Lakers, Bulls, and Heat) as well as another quality win over a good opponent who isn't quite as good as the other teams (The Clippers). I have to admit that I was genuinely impressed by Oklahoma's performance, especially the chemistry between Westbrook and Durant. Last season Westbrook took a lot of criticism for not deferring to KD, but as Magic said today "we hated on him last year, but now we have to give him his props", the truth is, if both of those guys can sustain this level of performance (and play with each other unselfishly) in and throughout the playoffs, we could see the birth of a very scary dynasty. However, despite their level of play this year, Oklahoma still has work to do to clinch home court advantage throughout the West thanks to the ageless Spurs.

San Antonio did not really impress me as much as the Thunder this week, but this is largely due to the fact that San Antonio's consistency over the last decade, as well as their refusal to die (figuratively of course) does not phase me anymore.  I could type how under-the-radar they have been, or how they have quietly gotten younger and more athletic, and how they have the best coach in the league, but none of that stuff matters because nobody will be interested in hearing it. San Antonio will get their proper respect after the first round of the playoffs (if they get there), until then, you really wont hear as much about them as you will about some of the other contenders. One last team I will mention, before moving on to other topics, is the Boston Celtics. Following the trade deadline, in which Danny Ainge wisely decided to let this crew have one last run (and if you think anyone will knock this team out easily, you are mistaken) Pierce, Rondo, Garnett, Allen, and Rivers will have this team believing, even if no one else believes in them. They have crept up on Orlando for the 3 seed in the East and are in full out business mode. The blowout they laid on the Heat yesterday signals that these guys are locked in, and the Heat and Bulls wont be happy about it and they definitely will not be happy if they have to face a rejuvenated and motivated Celtics team in the playoffs.

How is the MVP race shaking up after last week?