This was supposed to be the year where I managed to make picks for every week of the season. The year I could accurately gauge my results and see how much I actually know about predicting the outcomes of football games with point spreads. The year where I would manage my time appropriately and not let school overwhelm me to the point where I could not do the things I liked to do (like write on this blog for example). So much for that. A test, two assignments and a presentation squeezed in-between a trip to Kingston quickly dashed any hope of a week 4 picks post. With some luck that will be the only lost week we have. To get this thing off to a fresh start, Luka and I decided to do a nice back-and-forth for the slate of games in week 5 of NFL action. I kicked things off with the most puzzling spread of the week.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) At Washington Redskins
Daki: Luka, this has to be the weirdest line of the week right? Atlanta is undefeated and coming off of a tough game, looking to prove that they are a much better team than the one that almost lost to Carolina last week. The Atlanta offense vs. the Redskins defense seems like a bigger mismatch than Ron Artest vs. Sanity. Does Vegas know something we don't!?
Luka: The only thing i can think of is Vegas must have a case of RG3 fever because based on their play this season there's no reason Atlanta shouldn't be favored by more than a touchdown. That being said, the Falcons didn't play well at all last week against Carolina and only won due to Andy Reid-like coaching from Ron Rivera and terrible plays by a poor Panthers secondary. With the Nationals making the playoffs for the first time in forever, maybe the Redskins can pull off this upset and make this a Washington weekend. I doubt it though so I'm taking Matty Ice (horrible nickname) and the Falcons.
Daki: I too am taking the Falcons.
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) At Kansas City Chiefs
Daki: This one seems almost too easy doesn't it? One team (The Ravens) is clearly better than the other and should win this game comfortably. So why do I have an absolutely horrible feeling about taking the Ravens here?
Luka: You shouldn't. Baltimore's going to put KC in a vacant this week. Let's move on.
Cleveland Browns (+8.5) At New York Giants
Daki: Can we just rename the Ravens to be 'The Baltimore Wire'? I would like the team 15x more if this happened. As for this game (and for all six people who plan on watching it) I see the Giants winning but the Browns covering the spread. This Giants team cant play the role of favorites, had they come into this game with only 20 available players I would have taken them without hesitation.
Luka: They could even play the Clay Davis "Shieeeeeeeetttt" soundbite each time they got a penalty. Come on Baltimore, let's make this happen. As for the Giants, I'm not sure they've recovered from the beatdown (extremely close and lucky win) my Philadelphia Eagles put on them last week. In all seriousness though, I can already see what's going to happen with this game. With about 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter the scores will come up on whatever game you're watching and it'll show the Browns up by 7 with the ball. Next thing you know a Brandon Weeden pick-6 will be followed by an Eli late-game drive to give the G-men the win.
Green Bay Packers (-7) At Indianapolis Colts
Daki: And you know that when you finally see the highlights from the game there will be a combination of at least two of the following: miraculously avoided sacks by Eli, sure picks dropped by Browns defenders, A Giants fumble that gets ruled 'down by contact'or blown dead for no reason, a miraculous catch by a Giants wide-receiver. I am anticipating that we will see those highlights at some point of this Packers obliteration of the Colts. Seriously Green Bay, you have not played one complete game of football yet. Make this the week where you send out a friendly reminder to the rest of the NFL that you should be taken seriously, I think this one is over at half.
Luka: Based on talent alone this game shouldn't be close. However, Colts head Coach Steve Spagnolo was sadly diagnosed with leukemia this past week and will not be at the game as he continues to battle the disease. We've seen these types of stories before and these games usually go one of two ways. Either the team battling off-field issues is too emotionally drained to show up or they're as fired up as a team can be. I'm still taking the Packers but this game has a "DO IT FOR COACH" factor that could lead to an upset. Also I'm hoping the Packers continue to get screwed by the refs since it's become a funny subplot of this season.
Miami Dolphins (+3) At Cincinnati Bengals
Daki: Funny for everyone who is not a Packers fan that is. I legitimately feel bad for them, its a real testament to them that they're still finding ways to win. I am also terrified of the "DO IT FOR COACH" factor. As for this Dolphins-Bengals game (If you're scoring at home: that is now four out of a possible five games that will be absolutely terrible to watch on paper) who really knows? The Bengals are 3-1 and I don't think that we could name the teams they've beaten without the aid of the internet. the Dolphins almost beat Arizona last week and honestly, that is the only relevant thing I can think of with them. Is it wrong of me to not care about teams that have no shot at winning the Super Bowl? I'm taking the home-team with the better record here.
Luka: How come the Bengals get no slack for being a shitty 3-1 team and the Eagles do? At least we beat the Giants AND the Ravens! As for this game, stay away unless you have a gambling problem because literally anything could happen. If i had to pick I'd take the Dolphins only because Ace Ventura rescued their mascot and Dan Marino from Ray Finkle (What do you mean that was a movie?!?).
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) At Pittsburgh Steelers
Daki: Speak of the devil! To answer your question in the simplest way possible: The Bengals get slack because they do not have a -17 point differential, they are not expected to do anything (the Eagles are), and frankly, no one cares about the Bengals. Its in my nature to hate the Dolphins simply for that whole 'get together and celebrate when the last unbeaten team loses' tradition that is on par with thinking that the early 2000's Lakers squad was a bunch of classy guys. But I could write 50, 000 words about those topics so I will save them for another time. Anyways, your Eagles are long overdue for an absolute Andy Reid time management cluster-fuck that costs them a game (so far he's tried, but has not succeeded in losing a game in this way). He has been getting closer though, and I think that this is the week he pulls it off. I am taking the Steelers who have had the extra week to prepare, are at home, and can't afford to go 1-3.
Luka: I can't handle this Eagles team anymore. I feel like i should be writing a 10000 page hate-filled rant about the season so far and then i look at our record and we're 3-1!! I mean has there ever been a team so talented winning games in spite of themselves? It's nerve-wracking to watch and yet I like our chances this week. Philly is kind of like the Giants in the sense that when they should win, they don't. So I love how no one is picking the Eagles this week. Also, the Andy Reid thing is really getting out of hand. Do you think he thinks he's a horrible coach or that the moronic, impossible to understand decisions he makes week after week are actually beneficial to his team? Can the NFL just make us play with no timeouts since that's 3 less ways he can fuck up the game. Just really really bad coaching. On a positive note though, our pass rush is going to make Ben feel like he made that girl feel in that bathroom (too soon?).
Chicago Bears (-5.5) At Jacksonville Jaguars
Daki: I don't think its ever too soon for Ben jokes (Also I think I just figured out why announcers affectionately call "Ben" by his first name, its a lot easier to say and type than his last name, which I wont bother with). All I know is that I am looking forward to sending you my now weekly "hey, have the Eagles ever finished a game with three time-outs?" BBM. That game will definitely be on a television in the house, a perfect tie-in with this Bears game that even Chicago-area bars might have second-thoughts about showing. I personally think this line is ridiculous and that Vegas is throwing free money at people. So naturally at some point on Sunday I will stare blankly as the ticker at the bottom flashes: Jags 15 Bears 14 (because you know it will be some odd scoreline).
Luka: "YOU DON'T GO IN TO THE HOUSE GABBERT BUILT AND GET A WIN THAT EASY" - no one ever. This line gets even weirder when you realize that the Jags lost to the Bengals last week by 17. The only thing I can think of that would make Vegas put this line so low is that they (like the rest of us) hate Jay Cutler because he's a huge douche. And that's something I can get behind. Take the Bears though, that defense could beat Jacksonville by themselves.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) At Carolina Panthers
Daki: Its like the NFL made sure that everyone would have to watch Brady and Manning by offering can't miss games like these. Seriously, I am on at least my sixth "man this is a crappy game" joke and we only have half as many Wire references? This needs to change. So I'm gonna let your boy Stringer Bell talk to us about this Panthers season so far:
This week the Panthers submit another 40-degree day.
Luka: Best Wire character (possibly greatest TV character) hands down. Also that clip became 100x times better after I pictured Pete Caroll delivering that exact same speech to his team before the game tomorrow. At least we know what we're getting from the Panthers though, a few great Cam Newton plays combined with a lot of other bad stuff. The Seahawks? They're the most confusing team in the league. Russell Wilson might be really bad and this team should be 1-3 not 2-2. If GOLDEN TATE doesn't happen, are the Seahawks even relevant anymore? In my opinion they have to show up for this game and beat the Panthers convincingly if they want to be taken seriously and in my opinion they will. I'm taking the Hawks.
Buffalo (+9.5) At San Francisco
Daki: This is only San Francisco's second home game? Other than that I don't really have much to say as I abstain from commenting or making predictions on the games that involve my favorite team. I will say this though: how is it possible that the NFC West could be the best division in football? In the same year that the Atlantic division in the NBA might be the best one, the Orioles made the playoffs and Oakland is 'money-balling' again miraculously. What's next? A Leafs Stanley Cup?
Luka: The one good thing about the NHL lockout? I can delay my Maple Leafs-induced sadness for a few months. Moving on, how many passes does Fitzpatrick complete? 4? 5? Is it possible to throw for negative yardage? Unless you're a Niners fan, don't watch because this one won't be close. So instead, watch this clip from the greatest Michael Bay movie of all time, 'The Rock' (yes that's Sean Connery and Nicolas Cage in a chase scene in the streets of San Francisco and yes, Connery is driving a Hummer. You can thank me later.)
Denver Broncos (+6) At New England Patriots
Daki: Can we get Bay and Cage in on 'Fast and Furious 6'? Is it too late? Would a movie ever be as unintentionally funny as that one? But I digress. This is easily the game of the week for the NFL. They get to trot out their two golden boys and hype the match-up beyond proportions. So on Sunday expect: Every game's announcers to mention this one. Every studio break will talk about this game. At least 12 "Isn't it great to see these two play against each other again" quotes, and some questionable officiating to keep the game close.
Luka: At this point I'd pay to see Cage in anything. I can't wait for this game even though every Manning pass thrown for more than 20 yards looks like a punt. Am I the only who thinks the Pats are going to kill the Broncos? They have better players at each position and are playing at home. Everyone's going to be watching this game though. Can't wait.
Tennessee Titans (+5.5) At Minnesota Vikings
Daki: You are not the only one, but the NFL be damned if their marquee match-up is a blow out. This next game sucks. I want the Vikings to win though, so I am gonna pick them.
Luka: This game does suck but Minnesota appears to be good (if not good at least average) which defies everything anyone said prior to the season starting. You remember how everyone was deservedly hating on Ponder last season and look at him now. He's done a decent job at a John Elway impression these past 4 weeks and has silenced (for the time being) all of the naysayers. The one thing Vikings fans should be worried about is Matt Hasselbeck starting for the Titans. What's that? It's not 2005? Okay scratch that last thing I said. Let's take the Vikings in this game and move on.
San Diego Chargers (+3.5) At New Orleans Saints
Daki: People laughed at me when I said the Saints would go 6-10, well who's laughing now! On that note, how is an 0-4 team favored in any game? I mean sure that touchdown streak is pretty cool but does anyone actually care? I personally think that if Brees was offered 4-0 and no record, that he would take that option. Also I know that the Matt Ryan MVP bandwagon is gaining steam, so is this not the game for Rivers to throw his hat into the race?
Luka: As weird as this sounds, do you know who I think is loving this Saints season more than anyone else? Sean Payton. He finally has ammunition whenever anyone says he isn't a great coach or that coaching in general isn't important. As for the game, I'm not sure I've seen one snap of Chargers football all year but no matter who they have on the offensive side they should be able to score 30+ points on this terrible Saints D. If I were the Saints defensive coordinator, I'd bring back the bounty system because what's worse? Getting embarrassed each and every week with teams scoring at will on you or the chance that somewhere down the line you get caught by the NFL and punished justly. Alright so that wasn't serious but you have to admit there's some weird logic to it. I'm taking the Chargers in a very high-scoring affair that should be fun to watch.
Monday Night Football: Houston Texans (-8.5) At New York Jets
Daki: Sean Payton must be getting more excited by each loss, because it sets up a dream scenario for him next season: the savior. Its basically a no-lose situation for him (the exact opposite of the replacement refs) If the team does well it is because of him, if they don't then it is because the team is poorly built to begin with. Finally for our last game we get to TEEEEEEBOOOOOOWWWW. Why is Rex Ryan insisting on keeping faith with the Sanchize? Did he not watch football last year? This is an ideal scenario to throw Tebow into. At the very worst he would generate excitement and intrigue about the Jets, and maybe even spark them to a few extra wins. If Tebow were starting I would take the Jets without blinking, but he is not, so I am taking the best team in football (so far) to cover.
Luka: I feel bad for Mark Sanchez, as bad as you can feel for a multi-millionaire that plays football for a living that is. How much must it suck for all of your team's fans to be clamoring for your head on a plate while at the same time begging the coach to play your backup who in every single conceivable, logical way is a much worse quarterback then you?!?! I get that Tebow has magical powers and is the second coming of Jesus but I don't think we'll be seeing him pull his shit this week. If anything, he'll come in with the Jets down 20+ points and proceed to look frisky but that's it. Houston is too good for Tebowmania to strike them. However when the Jets play the Colts next week, watch out. That'll be the first week this year where Tebow turns into TEEEEEEEEEBBOOOOOOOOOWWWWWW. For this week's game beware the backdoor cover by the Jets but nothing more. I'm taking the Texans.
Daki: I really do hope Tebow starts defying the odds again so we can watch fun arguments between analysts and former pro's about whether or not Tebow is actually good. Is it so wrong to cheer for a hard-working athlete who nobody believes in? If Rex eventually gives in and starts playing Tebow and the Jets start winning, it will be another classic 'overcame the odds' story and I don't think that there is a person on the planet who does not enjoy those. In any case, this exchange was actually a lot of fun and we should do it more often.
