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Sunday, April 29, 2012

The Millennium NBA playoff preview (part 2)

After yesterday's post previewed the Saturday games, we move on to today's slate of games. Before I get to them though, some quick thoughts about the opening day of the playoffs.

Kevin Durant gave us the first game-winner of this years playoffs


-Derick Rose. What a tough blow, not just for the Bulls and their title hopes, but also to any fans of the NBA. I guarantee that any team that beats the Bulls (assuming they don't pull off a miracle and win the title, I give them a 7% shot to do this, for the record.) will not feel great about it, this Bill Simmons tweet summed it up best; we will never know how good the 2011-2012 Bulls really were.

-Iman Shumpert. In another cruel occurrence, the Knicks not only got embarrassed in their 8-on-5 match-up against the heat (I included the ref's, their performance really allowed Lebron to do his thing, and completely threw off New York) but they also lost their best perimeter defender for the playoffs. The Knicks have a lot to figure out, or they will be overwhelmed very quickly in this series.

-The Pacers. I mean... I thought we left the choking in last year's playoffs. As you may recall, Indiana lost 4-1 to the Bulls last season, in a series where they led in the 4th quarter four out of the five games. Yesterday, they allowed Orlando to close out the game on an 11-0 run, while missing open jumpers, turning the ball over carelessly (travelling, really?) and just taking bad shots (Collison's long two being the pick of the crop). Indiana will seriously need to re-evaluate things if they lose this series, but we have to wait and see what happens for now.

-Kevin Durant. Dallas and OKC provided us with the best game of the day, with KD hitting the game winner (rarely will we see a shot hit side rim and go in, but that's where Durant's soft touch greatly helped) with 1.5 seconds left. Rick Carlisle made a rare mistake and had no time-outs to use after Durant hit the shot. It turns out that Dallas looks ready to defend their title swinging, and Igor echoed what I think everyone is starting to realize: this will be the best match-up of the first round. On to Sunday.
# 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. The Utah Jazz

San Antonio looks to avoid losing to an 8 seed in back-to-back years, while the Jazz try and replicate the success of Memphis from last year. Both teams have really quick point-guards that could pose problems for each other, and the Jazz do have some significant size that could disrupt the Spurs, but I really can't see this Spurs team losing early in the playoffs again (barring a major injury). The Jazz are good enough to take a game though.

Prediction: Spurs in 5.

# 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. # 6 Denver Nuggets

Was anyone else amazed that Kobe chose to rest instead of going for the scoring title? This means that he genuinely believes that this Lakers team can win the title (and he is obviously right). In order to do that though, the Lakers have to go through Denver. George Karl opted to rest no one in the last week of the season, and Denver played some of their best basketball of the year. This could turn out to be a genius move. The Nuggets still had to get some reps with the full squad, and probably practiced some plays that they will use in this series. For the Lakers, a "B+" series from Gasol and Bunym should see the Lakers comfortably winning, but McGee and the 'Manimal' are the types of players who can disrupt them (high energy, never stop playing). Denver has nothing to lose, and with that attitude, and the altitude advantage, expect this series to be very tight.

Prediction: Lakers in 7.

# 4 Boston Celtics vs. # 5 Atlanta Hawks

With D-Rose going down, both of these teams think that whoever wins this series has a chance to go to the Eastern conference finals. With that at stake, I expect a really tough, competitive series (these two teams do not like each other). This one could really be classified as a toss-up, but I believe that the Celtics (making the last run with this core of players) will rise to the occasion.

Prediction: Celtics in 6.

# 4 Memphis Grizzlies vs. # 5 Los Angeles Clippers

At the start of the season I picked the Grizzlies to make the finals and I am sticking with that prediction. Chris Paul could absolutely win this series by himself, but will have to go through the defense(s) of both Conely and Tony Allen, who together form the best defensive back-court pairing in the league. Memphis is also bringing Zach Randolph off of the bench (although, coach Hollins could opt to start him, we don't know yet) for an impressive boost (if he plays half as well as he did in last year's playoffs, the Clippers second unit will have Z-Bo nightmares). I expect a slow, tough (with lots of Clippers flops) and low scoring series, Memphis begins their road to the title with this one.

Prediction: Memphis in 5.

Stay tuned to the blog throughout the NBA (and even NHL, I will write something about the NHL when I finish with school) playoffs, we will be posting regular updates (and don't worry, game of thrones and mad men thoughts will still be posted regularly. Cheers!

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