The 2012 Oscars are going to be fairly predictable in some of the most important categories. However, you wouldn’t be safe betting on the Best Actor/Actress categories this year, as there has been a change of opinion during the awards season. My predictions for the winners and possible spoilers are below.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Winner: The Artist. It’s won just about every single possible best picture award during the awards season, and there’s nothing stopping it from nabbing the Oscar. I don’t know how close this race will be, but you might as well put all your money on The Artist because nothing else has much of a chance at winning.
Spoiler: Hugo or The Help, but each with a < 5% chance of winning.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Demián Bichir for A Better Life, George Clooney for The Descendants, Jean Dujardin for The Artist, Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Brad Pitt for Moneyball
Winner: Jean Dujardin. Up until the SAG awards, Clooney was a lock for best actor. Everyone was praising his performance, he won the Golden Globe, and then Dujardin ended up getting the SAG and the BAFTA. A lot of the SAG voters are also members of the Academy, so Dujardin definitely has the advantage heading into Oscar night.
Spoiler: George Clooney would be the spoiler now.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs, Viola Davis for The Help, Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn
Winner: Viola Davis. This race is wildly close. Davis was supposed to win at the Golden Globes, but Streep took the award home. Streep also recently won the BAFTA, but with a win at the SAG Awards, and most people still talking about her performance in The Help, Davis has the slight advantage.
Spoiler: Meryl Streep. Don’t be surprised if she wins. It’s literally that close.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill for Moneyball, Nick Nolte for Warrior, Christopher Plummer for Beginners, Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Winner: Christopher Plummer. He’s won every supporting actor nomination he’s gotten.
Spoiler: None.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Bérénice Bejo for The Artist, Jessica Chastain for The Help, Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs, Octavia Spencer for The Help
Winner: Octavia Spencer. She’s been just as stellar as Plummer during the awards season.
Spoiler: None.
Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees: Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris, Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life, Alexander Payne for The Descendants, Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Winner: Michel Hazanavicius. Since this award typically goes to the director of the best picture, Hazanavicius is a safe bet (plus he won the DGA). Scorsese may have won the Globe, but as we all know, the Globes don’t really matter. Remember how David Fincher won at the Globes for The Social Network, but then lost the DGA and the Oscar to Hooper for The King’s Speech?
Spoiler: Martin Scorsese. Hugo has received amazing critiques, but it will be nearly impossible for Scorsese to win this one after losing the DGA.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen (Original Screenplay)
Nominees: The Artist, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation
Winner: Midnight in Paris. I would have gone with The Artist because it’s going to win Best Picture, but Midnight in Paris has been the favorite in this category since before the Golden Globes. It hasn’t lost any momentum and it should win the Oscar. Plus the script is excellent.
Spoiler: The Artist. It’s going to be the spoiler for the majority of categories it doesn’t win.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published (Adapted Screenplay) Nominees: The Descendants, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Winner: The Descendants. Of the nominated films, it’s the best one. Moneyball also had a terrific script, but critics have been heavily favoring The Descendants. It won the Golden Globe, and most well-made movies that deal with dysfunctional families will be recognized for their scripts.
Spoiler: Moneyball. I know Hugo received the majority of nominations and I still have yet to predict a win for it, but the script for Moneyball is better and it’s the only movie that has a chance of beating The Descendants.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango
Winner: Rango. It received the best ratings of the American films that have been nominated. I don’t know much about the two foreign films, but the Academy has been known to acknowledge them in the past (Spirited Away won in 2002 over four American films, and Howl’s Moving Castle was nominated in 2005, but it did not win). However, I still believe the majority of voters will go with Rango.
Spoiler: One of the two foreign films. Panda and Puss are not winning.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees: Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness, Monsieur Lazhar, A Separation
Winner: A Separation. I don’t really know these films, but A Separation won the Golden Globe and it’s also the only one of these films nominated for another Oscar (Best Writing), so I would expect it to win the Best Doc Feature at the Oscars as well.
Spoiler: I couldn’t tell you, but there’s little chance of another film winning.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Winner: The Tree of Life. I’m a bit skeptic on this one because True Grit was supposed to be the winner last year, yet it lost to Inception. I wouldn’t put any money on this category because it’s unpredictable. The Artist and Hugo could just as easily win.
Spoiler: The Artist. Hugo is a prettier movie, but if Academy voters are mesmerized with the old look of the film, they might hand the award to The Artist. It won the BAFTA, but the BAFTAs don’t have a lot of relation with the Oscars.
Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball
Winner: The Artist. The award typically goes hand-in-hand with the Best Picture category. As a result, The Artist is the clear frontrunner. The film is edited very well, and it a nice piece of cinema that all audiences should check out.
Spoiler: Hugo. I was about to put none, but Hugo is just as terrific as The Artist, and even though there’s little probability of it winning, it will definitely get some votes from the Academy members.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees: The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, War Horse
Winner: Hugo. Art direction awards the production set designer and the set decorator, so I would expect Hugo to win because it has the best set of all of the nominated films. There is great detail in every scene and the movie looks beautiful.
Spoiler: None. The Artist might get some votes, but Hugo deserves to win this, and it probably will.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees: Anonymous, The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, W.E.
Winner: The Artist. I have only seen The Artist and Hugo, but I believe the Academy will award the costumes from the late 1920s. It seems like unless a film has costumes that are different from what people wear today, it won’t have a shot at winning. Also, The Artist won the BAFTA.
Spoiler: I guess I’ll go with Hugo, but I’m not sure.
Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees: Albert Nobbs, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Iron Lady
Winner: The Iron Lady. They managed to make Meryl Streep look like Margaret Thatcher and I’m not sure who looks worse. However, the makeup was done very well and the Academy will probably side with the BAFTA voters on this one.
Spoiler: Harry Potter. Not much competition, but I don’t expect Albert Nobbs to win this one.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees: The Adventures of Tintin, The Artist, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse
Winner: The Artist. It has the best music hands down out of all these nominees. You’re practically listening to the score for all of the film’s 90 minutes. Besides that, it’s won numerous times for Best Score and there’s nothing that will take the Oscar away from it.
Spoiler: None.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees: Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet") for The Muppets, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett ("Real in Rio") for Rio
Winner: Man or Muppet. It’s the better song, and it’s surprising that the Academy did not nominate more Muppets songs (the Golden Globes nominated three).
Spoiler: I wonder…
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Nominees: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse
Winner: Hugo. I don’t know how you judge either of the sound categories. For the mixing of sound, I’ll go with Hugo just because it appears to be the favorite, but again, I don’t know how to judge it.
Spoiler: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Just a guess.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees: Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse
Winner: Hugo. Sound editing is the creation of sound. It’s basically noise. Transformers is probably the best in this category, in my opinion, but the Academy isn’t going to give it any awards, and Hugo is the favorite.
Spoiler: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Again, it’s just a guess.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Winner: Rise of the Planet of the Apes. The CGI in the film was amazing, and even though the Academy failed to recognize the brilliance in Andy Serkis’ performance as Caesar, they should and they probably will award the Oscar to Planet of the Apes.
Spoiler: Harry Potter. It won the BAFTA, but the CGI in Planet of the Apes is just too good for the Academy to not give it the award.
The Last 4 categories (Best Documentary, Feature and Short Subjects, and Best Short Film, Live Action and Animated) would be blind guesses since I have not seen any of them, so I cannot give an accurate prediction as to who will win those categories.