2012 Oscars - Predictions and Possible Spoilers

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The 2012 Oscars are going to be fairly predictable in some of the most important categories. However, you wouldn’t be safe betting on the Best Actor/Actress categories this year, as there has been a change of opinion during the awards season. My predictions for the winners and possible spoilers are below.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Winner: The Artist. It’s won just about every single possible best picture award during the awards season, and there’s nothing stopping it from nabbing the Oscar. I don’t know how close this race will be, but you might as well put all your money on The Artist because nothing else has much of a chance at winning.

Spoiler: Hugo or The Help, but each with a < 5% chance of winning.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Demián Bichir for A Better Life, George Clooney for The Descendants, Jean Dujardin for The Artist, Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Brad Pitt for Moneyball

Winner: Jean Dujardin. Up until the SAG awards, Clooney was a lock for best actor. Everyone was praising his performance, he won the Golden Globe, and then Dujardin ended up getting the SAG and the BAFTA. A lot of the SAG voters are also members of the Academy, so Dujardin definitely has the advantage heading into Oscar night.

Spoiler: George Clooney would be the spoiler now.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs, Viola Davis for The Help, Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn

Winner: Viola Davis. This race is wildly close. Davis was supposed to win at the Golden Globes, but Streep took the award home. Streep also recently won the BAFTA, but with a win at the SAG Awards, and most people still talking about her performance in The Help, Davis has the slight advantage.

Spoiler: Meryl Streep. Don’t be surprised if she wins. It’s literally that close.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill for Moneyball, Nick Nolte for Warrior, Christopher Plummer for Beginners, Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Winner: Christopher Plummer. He’s won every supporting actor nomination he’s gotten.

Spoiler: None.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Bérénice Bejo for The Artist, Jessica Chastain for The Help, Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs, Octavia Spencer for The Help

Winner: Octavia Spencer. She’s been just as stellar as Plummer during the awards season.

Spoiler: None.

Best Achievement in Directing

Nominees: Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris, Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life, Alexander Payne for The Descendants, Martin Scorsese for Hugo

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius. Since this award typically goes to the director of the best picture, Hazanavicius is a safe bet (plus he won the DGA). Scorsese may have won the Globe, but as we all know, the Globes don’t really matter. Remember how David Fincher won at the Globes for The Social Network, but then lost the DGA and the Oscar to Hooper for The King’s Speech?

Spoiler: Martin Scorsese. Hugo has received amazing critiques, but it will be nearly impossible for Scorsese to win this one after losing the DGA.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen (Original Screenplay)

Nominees: The Artist, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation

Winner: Midnight in Paris. I would have gone with The Artist because it’s going to win Best Picture, but Midnight in Paris has been the favorite in this category since before the Golden Globes. It hasn’t lost any momentum and it should win the Oscar. Plus the script is excellent.

Spoiler: The Artist. It’s going to be the spoiler for the majority of categories it doesn’t win.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees: The Descendants, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Winner: The Descendants. Of the nominated films, it’s the best one. Moneyball also had a terrific script, but critics have been heavily favoring The Descendants. It won the Golden Globe, and most well-made movies that deal with dysfunctional families will be recognized for their scripts.

Spoiler: Moneyball. I know Hugo received the majority of nominations and I still have yet to predict a win for it, but the script for Moneyball is better and it’s the only movie that has a chance of beating The Descendants.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango

Winner: Rango. It received the best ratings of the American films that have been nominated. I don’t know much about the two foreign films, but the Academy has been known to acknowledge them in the past (Spirited Away won in 2002 over four American films, and Howl’s Moving Castle was nominated in 2005, but it did not win). However, I still believe the majority of voters will go with Rango.

Spoiler: One of the two foreign films. Panda and Puss are not winning.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Nominees: Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness, Monsieur Lazhar, A Separation

Winner: A Separation. I don’t really know these films, but A Separation won the Golden Globe and it’s also the only one of these films nominated for another Oscar (Best Writing), so I would expect it to win the Best Doc Feature at the Oscars as well.

Spoiler: I couldn’t tell you, but there’s little chance of another film winning.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Nominees: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Winner: The Tree of Life. I’m a bit skeptic on this one because True Grit was supposed to be the winner last year, yet it lost to Inception. I wouldn’t put any money on this category because it’s unpredictable. The Artist and Hugo could just as easily win.

Spoiler: The Artist. Hugo is a prettier movie, but if Academy voters are mesmerized with the old look of the film, they might hand the award to The Artist. It won the BAFTA, but the BAFTAs don’t have a lot of relation with the Oscars.

Best Achievement in Editing

Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball

Winner: The Artist. The award typically goes hand-in-hand with the Best Picture category. As a result, The Artist is the clear frontrunner. The film is edited very well, and it a nice piece of cinema that all audiences should check out.

Spoiler: Hugo. I was about to put none, but Hugo is just as terrific as The Artist, and even though there’s little probability of it winning, it will definitely get some votes from the Academy members.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Nominees: The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, War Horse

Winner: Hugo. Art direction awards the production set designer and the set decorator, so I would expect Hugo to win because it has the best set of all of the nominated films. There is great detail in every scene and the movie looks beautiful.

Spoiler: None. The Artist might get some votes, but Hugo deserves to win this, and it probably will.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Nominees: Anonymous, The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, W.E.

Winner: The Artist. I have only seen The Artist and Hugo, but I believe the Academy will award the costumes from the late 1920s. It seems like unless a film has costumes that are different from what people wear today, it won’t have a shot at winning. Also, The Artist won the BAFTA.

Spoiler: I guess I’ll go with Hugo, but I’m not sure.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Nominees: Albert Nobbs, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Iron Lady

Winner: The Iron Lady. They managed to make Meryl Streep look like Margaret Thatcher and I’m not sure who looks worse. However, the makeup was done very well and the Academy will probably side with the BAFTA voters on this one.

Spoiler: Harry Potter. Not much competition, but I don’t expect Albert Nobbs to win this one.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Nominees: The Adventures of Tintin, The Artist, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse

Winner: The Artist. It has the best music hands down out of all these nominees. You’re practically listening to the score for all of the film’s 90 minutes. Besides that, it’s won numerous times for Best Score and there’s nothing that will take the Oscar away from it.

Spoiler: None.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Nominees: Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet") for The Muppets, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett ("Real in Rio") for Rio

Winner: Man or Muppet. It’s the better song, and it’s surprising that the Academy did not nominate more Muppets songs (the Golden Globes nominated three).

Spoiler: I wonder…

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Nominees: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse

Winner: Hugo. I don’t know how you judge either of the sound categories. For the mixing of sound, I’ll go with Hugo just because it appears to be the favorite, but again, I don’t know how to judge it.

Spoiler: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Just a guess.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees: Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse

Winner: Hugo. Sound editing is the creation of sound. It’s basically noise. Transformers is probably the best in this category, in my opinion, but the Academy isn’t going to give it any awards, and Hugo is the favorite.

Spoiler: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Again, it’s just a guess.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Nominees: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Winner: Rise of the Planet of the Apes. The CGI in the film was amazing, and even though the Academy failed to recognize the brilliance in Andy Serkis’ performance as Caesar, they should and they probably will award the Oscar to Planet of the Apes.

Spoiler: Harry Potter. It won the BAFTA, but the CGI in Planet of the Apes is just too good for the Academy to not give it the award.

The Last 4 categories (Best Documentary, Feature and Short Subjects, and Best Short Film, Live Action and Animated) would be blind guesses since I have not seen any of them, so I cannot give an accurate prediction as to who will win those categories.

Should You Watch the Golden Globes?

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The Golden Globes are typically an indicator of how the Oscars will turn out. However, that hasn’t been the case in the last few years. Avatar and Jim Cameron won at the Globes, while The Hurt Locker and Kathryn Bigelow won at the Oscars. The following year, The Social Network and David Fincher won at the Globes, but the Oscars were handed to The King’s Speech and Tom Hooper.

Everyone already disregards the Golden Globes as an important awards show, as the Oscars are more important for movies, while the Emmy’s are more important for TV shows. Based on results in the past few years, it does not matter who wins at the Golden Globes because the Oscars are a completely different show. However, I expect to see the same winner at the Globes (in the Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy category) and the Oscars this time around.

The Golden Globes aren’t far away, but it feels like they shouldn’t even come this time around. It’s expected that every year there are going to be snubs (this includes the Oscars) and fans of those deserving movies, shows and actors will undoubtedly be disappointed. There are also undeserving films that are nominated simply for the pleasure of fans. A few years ago, The Blind Side was nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, and even though it is a good movie, it was evident that its nomination was an attempt to attract viewers and increase ratings. The undeserving film that has been nominated for Best Motion Picture this year is The Ides of March. The film is led by strong performances from Ryan Gosling and George Clooney, but it is a typical political film with no major surprises. In the end, The Ides of March is a very average film. I don’t even know why there are six nominations instead of five. The film has no chance of winning and should have been left out of the category. Ryan Gosling’s nomination for Best Actor also comes as a surprise. His performance was solid, but I was expecting Gary Oldman to get nominated for Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy, with all the credit critics have been giving him for his performance. Regardless, I expect George Clooney to win the Golden Globe in this category for his performance in The Descendants.

The Artist leads the Globes with 6 nominations, unsurprisingly, as a black-and-white film without dialogue, set in the 1920s. Critics praise any movie that involves early cinema and moviemaking, and given the apparent quality of The Artist, which I have yet to see, it’s a lock for Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical, and probably for Best Picture at the Oscars.

Drive received only one nomination – Albert Brooks for his supporting performance as the film’s antagonist. I understand that he hasn’t acted in some time and that he is regarded as a good actor, but his performance in Drive was nothing spectacular, and the voters could have given his nomination to a more deserving actor. I would also replace Drive for The Ides of March in the Best Picture category, but this is not my main complaint. Drive might be the best directed film of the year, yet Nicolas Winding Refn was completely overlooked by the voters and the Globe will go to a less deserving director.

I’m also curious as to how The Muppets doesn’t have a single song nominated at the Globes, yet it has been getting numerous nominations at other award shows (mainly critics’ awards). It’s not a complaint because I haven’t listened to them, but I do not understand why the Globes are trying to be so different.

The obvious snub in the Best Television Series – Drama category is Breaking Bad. It is regarded as one of the best shows on television all across the internet and it is nominated at the Emmy’s every single year, yet the Globes are choosing to nominate Boss and American Horror Story over it. Personally, I hope Game of Thrones wins the category, seeing as it is the only nominated show that I have watched. Adding on to the Breaking Bad snub, it’s disappointing to see that Aaron Paul is not nominated. He won an Emmy for his performance in the show’s third season, but has yet to receive a Golden Globe nomination. At least Bryan Cranston was recognized for his terrific performance.

There are more snubs and underserving nominations, but these are some of the biggest in my opinion. The Golden Globes do not deserve to get good ratings given all of the snubs, but if you are planning on watching the award ceremony (even though there really is no point), at least you can look forward to seeing Ricky Gervais return once again and give an inappropriate and funny performance as the show’s host.

The Descendants Review

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My apologies, but given my lack of time, this review will be shorter than usual.

The Descendants will probably come across as a regular all too far often seen drama that deals with unfortunate family issues. However, where other movies have struggled to set themselves apart from being ordinary, The Descendants succeeds and ends up offering one of the year’s best films. It is led by an emotional and Oscar-worthy performance by George Clooney, with strong performances from the rest of the cast, including his daughter, played by Shailene Woodley.

The film begins with George Clooney’s wife being hospitalized after a serious injury leaves her in a coma. The rest of the film centers on Clooney and his two daughters, and how they deal with the tragedy. With such a plot, you can expect a lot of emotional and heavy scenes, but they are balanced nicely with humorous lines in the movie and strong performances. The direction is good, but I would still have to give the Oscar to Refn for the amazing job he did with Drive. The only thing that could have been changed in the direction of The Descendants is the number of scenes where his wife is shown. Her position does not change, and as unfortunate as it may be, it is unpleasant to get constant close-ups of her lying in her hospital bed.

The music is smooth and fits appropriately with the film, with a few Hawaiian tunes, and many pleasant instrumentals. In terms of the acting, which I’ve already mentioned, I think it is time for the Academy to award Clooney his second Oscar, and his first for a leading role (he previously won best supporting actor for his performance is Syriana). Clooney is forced to display dramatic emotions many times throughout the film, and delivers fantastically in these scenes. He might not have won for his performance in Up in the Air, but the performance he puts on in The Descendants is much stronger and more worthy of an Oscar.

The Descendants isn’t a movie you need to see in theaters, but it is a movie you should check out. There have been a number of terrific films this year that may or may not get nominated for an Oscar next year, and even though the Academy may pass on nominating The Descendants, it still stands as one of the best films of the year, and a film worth seeing when you get the chance. You won’t be disappointed.

Score: 8.8/10