2012 Oscars - Predictions and Possible Spoilers

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The 2012 Oscars are going to be fairly predictable in some of the most important categories. However, you wouldn’t be safe betting on the Best Actor/Actress categories this year, as there has been a change of opinion during the awards season. My predictions for the winners and possible spoilers are below.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Winner: The Artist. It’s won just about every single possible best picture award during the awards season, and there’s nothing stopping it from nabbing the Oscar. I don’t know how close this race will be, but you might as well put all your money on The Artist because nothing else has much of a chance at winning.

Spoiler: Hugo or The Help, but each with a < 5% chance of winning.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Demián Bichir for A Better Life, George Clooney for The Descendants, Jean Dujardin for The Artist, Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Brad Pitt for Moneyball

Winner: Jean Dujardin. Up until the SAG awards, Clooney was a lock for best actor. Everyone was praising his performance, he won the Golden Globe, and then Dujardin ended up getting the SAG and the BAFTA. A lot of the SAG voters are also members of the Academy, so Dujardin definitely has the advantage heading into Oscar night.

Spoiler: George Clooney would be the spoiler now.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs, Viola Davis for The Help, Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn

Winner: Viola Davis. This race is wildly close. Davis was supposed to win at the Golden Globes, but Streep took the award home. Streep also recently won the BAFTA, but with a win at the SAG Awards, and most people still talking about her performance in The Help, Davis has the slight advantage.

Spoiler: Meryl Streep. Don’t be surprised if she wins. It’s literally that close.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill for Moneyball, Nick Nolte for Warrior, Christopher Plummer for Beginners, Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Winner: Christopher Plummer. He’s won every supporting actor nomination he’s gotten.

Spoiler: None.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Bérénice Bejo for The Artist, Jessica Chastain for The Help, Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs, Octavia Spencer for The Help

Winner: Octavia Spencer. She’s been just as stellar as Plummer during the awards season.

Spoiler: None.

Best Achievement in Directing

Nominees: Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris, Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life, Alexander Payne for The Descendants, Martin Scorsese for Hugo

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius. Since this award typically goes to the director of the best picture, Hazanavicius is a safe bet (plus he won the DGA). Scorsese may have won the Globe, but as we all know, the Globes don’t really matter. Remember how David Fincher won at the Globes for The Social Network, but then lost the DGA and the Oscar to Hooper for The King’s Speech?

Spoiler: Martin Scorsese. Hugo has received amazing critiques, but it will be nearly impossible for Scorsese to win this one after losing the DGA.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen (Original Screenplay)

Nominees: The Artist, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation

Winner: Midnight in Paris. I would have gone with The Artist because it’s going to win Best Picture, but Midnight in Paris has been the favorite in this category since before the Golden Globes. It hasn’t lost any momentum and it should win the Oscar. Plus the script is excellent.

Spoiler: The Artist. It’s going to be the spoiler for the majority of categories it doesn’t win.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees: The Descendants, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Winner: The Descendants. Of the nominated films, it’s the best one. Moneyball also had a terrific script, but critics have been heavily favoring The Descendants. It won the Golden Globe, and most well-made movies that deal with dysfunctional families will be recognized for their scripts.

Spoiler: Moneyball. I know Hugo received the majority of nominations and I still have yet to predict a win for it, but the script for Moneyball is better and it’s the only movie that has a chance of beating The Descendants.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango

Winner: Rango. It received the best ratings of the American films that have been nominated. I don’t know much about the two foreign films, but the Academy has been known to acknowledge them in the past (Spirited Away won in 2002 over four American films, and Howl’s Moving Castle was nominated in 2005, but it did not win). However, I still believe the majority of voters will go with Rango.

Spoiler: One of the two foreign films. Panda and Puss are not winning.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Nominees: Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness, Monsieur Lazhar, A Separation

Winner: A Separation. I don’t really know these films, but A Separation won the Golden Globe and it’s also the only one of these films nominated for another Oscar (Best Writing), so I would expect it to win the Best Doc Feature at the Oscars as well.

Spoiler: I couldn’t tell you, but there’s little chance of another film winning.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Nominees: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Winner: The Tree of Life. I’m a bit skeptic on this one because True Grit was supposed to be the winner last year, yet it lost to Inception. I wouldn’t put any money on this category because it’s unpredictable. The Artist and Hugo could just as easily win.

Spoiler: The Artist. Hugo is a prettier movie, but if Academy voters are mesmerized with the old look of the film, they might hand the award to The Artist. It won the BAFTA, but the BAFTAs don’t have a lot of relation with the Oscars.

Best Achievement in Editing

Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball

Winner: The Artist. The award typically goes hand-in-hand with the Best Picture category. As a result, The Artist is the clear frontrunner. The film is edited very well, and it a nice piece of cinema that all audiences should check out.

Spoiler: Hugo. I was about to put none, but Hugo is just as terrific as The Artist, and even though there’s little probability of it winning, it will definitely get some votes from the Academy members.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Nominees: The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, War Horse

Winner: Hugo. Art direction awards the production set designer and the set decorator, so I would expect Hugo to win because it has the best set of all of the nominated films. There is great detail in every scene and the movie looks beautiful.

Spoiler: None. The Artist might get some votes, but Hugo deserves to win this, and it probably will.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Nominees: Anonymous, The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, W.E.

Winner: The Artist. I have only seen The Artist and Hugo, but I believe the Academy will award the costumes from the late 1920s. It seems like unless a film has costumes that are different from what people wear today, it won’t have a shot at winning. Also, The Artist won the BAFTA.

Spoiler: I guess I’ll go with Hugo, but I’m not sure.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Nominees: Albert Nobbs, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Iron Lady

Winner: The Iron Lady. They managed to make Meryl Streep look like Margaret Thatcher and I’m not sure who looks worse. However, the makeup was done very well and the Academy will probably side with the BAFTA voters on this one.

Spoiler: Harry Potter. Not much competition, but I don’t expect Albert Nobbs to win this one.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Nominees: The Adventures of Tintin, The Artist, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse

Winner: The Artist. It has the best music hands down out of all these nominees. You’re practically listening to the score for all of the film’s 90 minutes. Besides that, it’s won numerous times for Best Score and there’s nothing that will take the Oscar away from it.

Spoiler: None.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Nominees: Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet") for The Muppets, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett ("Real in Rio") for Rio

Winner: Man or Muppet. It’s the better song, and it’s surprising that the Academy did not nominate more Muppets songs (the Golden Globes nominated three).

Spoiler: I wonder…

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Nominees: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse

Winner: Hugo. I don’t know how you judge either of the sound categories. For the mixing of sound, I’ll go with Hugo just because it appears to be the favorite, but again, I don’t know how to judge it.

Spoiler: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Just a guess.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees: Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse

Winner: Hugo. Sound editing is the creation of sound. It’s basically noise. Transformers is probably the best in this category, in my opinion, but the Academy isn’t going to give it any awards, and Hugo is the favorite.

Spoiler: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Again, it’s just a guess.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Nominees: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Winner: Rise of the Planet of the Apes. The CGI in the film was amazing, and even though the Academy failed to recognize the brilliance in Andy Serkis’ performance as Caesar, they should and they probably will award the Oscar to Planet of the Apes.

Spoiler: Harry Potter. It won the BAFTA, but the CGI in Planet of the Apes is just too good for the Academy to not give it the award.

The Last 4 categories (Best Documentary, Feature and Short Subjects, and Best Short Film, Live Action and Animated) would be blind guesses since I have not seen any of them, so I cannot give an accurate prediction as to who will win those categories.

2012 NBA Rising Stars Challenge Draft

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This year the NBA changed its annual Rookie-Sophomore game into a "Rising Stars Challenge" where a pool of players would be picked playground style by two "coaches", Shaquille O'neal and Charles Barkley. It was a way to generate some more excitement to an event that's been an afterthought to each All-Star weekend. Fellow writer Igor suggested that we use this opportunity to fill the roles of Shaq and Charles and draft the players ourselves. Obviously i agreed right away and this is what we came up with. Igor won the coin toss and will be in charge of Team Shaq while I am Team Barkley.

Shortly after this was written the NBA added Jeremy Lin and Norris Cole to the roster of available players. Since Igor got the first pick in the actual draft I will be getting it in this supplemental one. And with it I'm taking LINSANITY. Igor will take (be stuck with) Norris Cole.

Igor

With the first pick in the draft I'm going to take Jeremy Lin...ok I'm kidding he's not available but they should somehow include him. Anyways, I'm going to pick the best player (and only allstar) from the field of rookies and sophomores. I wonder who that is? You guessed it! Blake Griffin! His game is built for all-star weekend and he's bound to supply ESPN with a bunch of highlights from this game as well as from Sunday's game. As long as there's no hack-a-Blake he should thrive on Friday night. Side note: It's kind of sad that he's not in the dunk contest this year since the field looks pretty weak and apparently it will be 3 dunks per player where the winner will be determined by fan voting...terrible decision by the NBA.

Luka

I find it amazing how the NBA keeps managing to make the slam-dunk contest worse year after year. If I'm them I just go all the way this year and make the contestants Brian Scalabrine, Luis Scola, Aaron Gray and Gregg Ostertag (he can come out of retirement for this). Who wouldn't watch this? (Everybody). For my pick I'm taking the most exciting point guard from a passing point in the roster of available players.. Ricky Rubio! He's had an amazing year so far (way better than I thought he'd have) and you need a pass-first point guard running the show in any type of all-star game. Also, if you don't think my team is playing Hack-a-Blake then something's wrong with you.

Igor

Yeah, do your Hack-a-Blake and ruin the game for everyone (F you Don Nelson...F you!). That dunk contest would be awesome, but sub in Big Baby instead of Scola. After watching him get stuffed by the rim last year I have my doubts whether he could dunk or not. Good pick with Rubio, but I'm taking the best PG from the pool of players, John Wall. Wall is going to connect with Blake for at least 5 alley-oops and he can also turn it on by being a scorer whenever the team needs him to be. He's increased his assist totals in the last month finally showing us he's the player we were expecting him to be. Wall will finish this game with at least 15 assists.

Luka

Good pick. I think Wall won't want to take off his jersey from this game because for two wonderful hours he won't be a Washington Wizard. With my second pick I'm going to take DeMarcus Cousins who I can see having a monster 20 point 20 rebound game with at least 5 plays that make you say "that guy knows he's getting paid to play a sport right..?". It'll also be nice to see Cousins play with a real point guard (sorry Tyreke).

Igor

If Blair can get 20-20 a few years ago, Cousins probably can too. Next I'm going with less athleticism and more skill and pick Greg Monroe. This guy is one of the more skilled big man passers in the NBA today and is having a beast year overall. As happy as Wall will be without a Wiz jersey, Monroe will be equally as happy without a Pistons jersey. This locks up my starting frontcourt.

Luka

Really like Monroe. Wish he didn't play for a team that seems like they're inventing new ways of losing each night. I'm going to take Paul George with my third pick. He can shoot the three, can catch an alley-oop from Rubio and finish and should be rewarded for having a great second year while playing big minutes for a legit playoff team.

Igor

Well George is in the dunk contest so he could give us a tease as to what he's going to do on Saturday. Kobe Bryant Jr. is my next pick. MarShon Brooks has really impressed me this year with his scoring and passing abilities. His jumper looks like Kobe's and he can explode on any given night (hopefully does for this game). The kid really knows how to play smart basketball and even though he's been slightly sub-par recently (he was injured), I think he will be in form for this game.

Luka

Like most of the New Jersey Nets (other than D-Will who should not be an all-star) I don't really have a strong opinion on Brooks but he's a scorer and in a game of no defense that's always a good thing. I'm taking Kyrie Irving. The current favorite for the rookie of the year award has (just like Rubio) exceeded expectations and has made the Cavs watchable. I don't care that I have 2 point guards now since position doesn't matter in this game and I'm more than willing to go to war (or in this case, a half-hearted battle) with a Rubio-Irving backcourt.

Igor

Irving has greatly exceeded my expectations, I mean he's shooting 50% from the field, 40% from three and 80% from the line. Only a few others are as efficient as him and this is especially impressive since he's a rookie point guard. Now the talent drops off a little bit so I'm going to add in some defense. Landry Fields is my next pick and I think he fits well on this team. He can shoot the three, rebound well for a guard, and I believe he can defend Paul George. Not to make things boring, he also has some hops so expect him to finish a few alley-oops from Wall.

Luka

Fields has been completely rejuvenated by Lin (who hasn't) and is a solid player. To counter I'm going to take Gordon Hayward because he's a shooter who will get plenty of open looks this game and for the unintentional comedy that we'll get from him playing with Cousins. Side-note: anyone who gets drafted by Shaq has already lost. They'll have to spend the entire game pretending to laugh at his labored, bad jokes. I mean has there ever been a case of someone who everyone thought would be good at a certain position (in this case Shaq as a studio guy) only to be terrible at it? (Cut to everyone who voted for Obama trying not to nod (just kidding)).